A Cost-Benefit Study in Qinling Mountains Nature Reserve Group:Forecast of Cost and Benefit
秦岭自然保护区群成本效益研究(Ⅱ)——成本效益预测

The Qinling Nature Reserve Group (QNRG) construction project is not only an important key forestry ecological engineering and a key support project of the West Development in China, but also a complex social and economic system engineering. With the operation of cropland conversion project and natural forest protection in Shaanxi province, the QNRG and its surrounding systems will be affected consequently. Based on the cost and benefit measurement in QNRG, this study has made a forecast about the protection cost and benefit. According to the current national cost investment and sample section data, we have predicted the relationship between comprehensive benefit and cost, which can be served as a basis for optimizing the Qinling nature reserve policy. On the basis of cost-benefit section data of seven national nature reserves in QNRG, we have fit the curves of comprehensive benefits and 3 related costs with SPSS17.0 and more than 10 kinds of fitting curves. Considering the model Goodness-of-Fit R2 and Significant Level Sig, three fitting functions have been developed as follows: 1) Curve equation between comprehensive benefits (Qt) and the direct cost of protection(Xa):Qt =- 68.244+870.688 Xa-2493.849Xa2+2304.879Xa3;2) Curve equation between comprehensive benefits (Qt) and indirect cost of protection(Xb):Qt=17.844e1.986Xb; 3) Curve equation between comprehensive benefits (Qt) and opportunity cost of protection(Xc):Qt=-78.157+104.775Xc-32.953Xc2 +3.296Xc3 . In this study, direct and opportunity cost exhibit relatively high correlation with comprehensive benefits with Sig. < 0.05. However, indirect cost presents low correlation with comprehensive benefits with Sig. >0.05. Considering the above results, we have chosen an exponential function to fit the curve between indirect cost and comprehensive benefits. It is widely recognized that researching cost and benefit as well as protection policy of nature reserve is a complex and difficult work, which depends on both natural characteristics of nature reserves and local social and economic conditions and needs continuous research and exploration from both domstic and international scholars. This study has informed the investment in reserves as well as provided theory support for policy making of nature reserves in Shaanxi province.