Energy End-Use Structure of Hebei Province Obtained Using Shift-Share Methods
基于偏离份额法的河北省能源终端消费结构研究

Energy is one of the most important factors for human survival and development. As China's urbanization, economy and energy requirements continue to grow, pressure will increase on resources and the environment. It is therefore necessary to address the sustainable development of energy for Hebei province, one of the largest energy-consuming provinces in China. Based on energy data for China and Hebei from 2005 to 2009, the shift-share method was used to analyze energy end-use structure for the province. We found that energy consumption growth for Hebei was a little lower than the national average. Industrial energy consumption is the most important factor influencing energy use in Hebei. In the future, the overall energy consumption of Hebei province will not increase greatly. Among all industries, the energy consumption of agriculture, forestry, husbandry and fishery are the most likely to grow, and the energy use of life consumption is the least likely to grow. The high energy-consuming industries do not have a monopoly on the overall energy end-consumption structure in Hebei, so energy terminal consumption structure was not the main factor leading to the energy crisis in Hebei during the period we studied. We suggest that energy planning be developed as soon as possible, using legal means to restrain the disorderly development of energy and reducing the waste of energy. Advanced technology to reduce current energy usage and build a buffer for future energy consumption should be introduced. The influence of energy price mechanism on energy structure is one of the most important economic factors and results in the inefficient consumption of energy, we must leverage prices to force energy consumption structure optimization. Last, multi-channel investment and financing mechanisms to solve funds shortages should be innovated. These suggestions are given to improve energy consumption structure and achieve sustainable development in Hebei.