The Structure Decomposition Analysis of Factors Influencing Energy Consumption Change in China
中国能源消耗变动影响因素的结构分解

Energy consumption is increasing to a great extent with the fast economic growth in China. It is an important question for the whole human being that how to save energy and decrease consumption and how to realize the persist development of energy and economy. Therefore, it is of significant theory value and actual meaning to discuss the influence mechanism. This paper uses two-pole decomposition analysis method to decompose the energy change of China into the change of energy intensity, the change of technology progress and the change of final demand based the I-O theory. According to the I-O table data from 1997 to 2002, the paper calculates the influential degree of three factors upon total energy consumption. Experience analysis result indicates that the improvement of energy efficiency decreases energy input directly or indirectly; technology improvement and the change of final demand result in the increase of energy input; the positive effect of technology and final demand exceeds the negative effect of energy consumption intensity. As a result, total energy consumption of all kinds in 2002 is more than that in 1997. At the same time, the paper calculates the congratulation and the characteristic of three affecting factors of twenty-eight industries to coal, petroleum, gas and electricity consumption. As a result, energy intensity change would not reduce energy consumption in all industries while technology progress can increase the sum of energy consumption of all industries. The changing direction of final demand is consistent with consumption of four kinds of energy in the twenty-eight industries. At last, we put forward policies to save energy and decrease consumption at four aspects. The first policy is to deploy energy consumption structure in reason. The second policy is to optimize industrial structure. The third policy is to develop environment friendly energy with great effort. The fourth policy is to exert the function of the government in energy conservation and consumption reduction.