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资源科学 2004
A Two-parameter Monthly Water Balance Model and Its Application in Hanjiang River Basin
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Abstract:
Brief principles on the two-parameter (C & SC) water balance model have been introduced in this paper. Furthermore, the function to simulate the depth of runoff using water balance function and empirical formula has been constructed and a program has been used to auto-calibrate the two unfixed model parameters (C & SC). Simulations and validations are conducted with the basic hydrological observation data collected from 15 stations at upper stream of Hangjiang River Basin. Simulations are attempted in monthly time steps and the time span for modeling is 6-year period from 1980 to 1985. Good simulation results have been gotten on Hangjiang catchments with most of the simulation efficiencies of the 15 stations are above 0.80. The best simulation result is on Tiesuoguan Station and Nash is 0.9923 in simulation period and 0.9377 in validation period. While the worst simulation result is on Dazhuhe Station and Nash is 0.5004 in simulation period and 0.7382 in validation period. The sensitivity of the two parameters (C & SC) of the model to simulation efficiencies is analyzed on the two typical sub catchments, Tiesuoguan and Dazhuhe. The result is that simulation efficiencies have changed obviously when C changed while almost unchanged when SC changed. However, C and SC could always be found close to the maximum of R2 so that RE and REm are close to zero, and the model could be satisfied. As a result, it is proved that C and SC can be auto-verification by computer program. Finally, a scheme that takes advantages of remote sensing techniques and GIS powerful management capability in a distributed manner to predict the water resource response to the possible climate and land use/cover variations under the global change scenarios are discussed and prospected.
