Method of Network Security Situation Prediction Based on Likelihood BP
一种基于似然BP的网络安全态势预测方法

Situation prediction is the advanced stage of network security situation awareness.For purpose of resolving the limitations of depending on experts giving weight, lacking of self-learning on data processing in complex network system, a method of network security situation prediction based on likelihood BP was proposed.The BP neural network was introduced to the situation prediction area, and the traditional error function was replaced by the maximum likeli-hood error function.The situation sequences established through the situation assessment model were used as the train-ing input sequences, and the self-learning adjustment of the appointed parameters' values was implemented in the process of back propagation training.The new method can make full use of the characteristics of the network more com-plex, finer grain size, the higher the efficiency.Experimental results show that the method has good performance of situ-ation prediction, and provides a new solution for network security situation prediction.