Exploration and research for forecasting method of reconstructed first before modeling based on emergercy-alarm events
基于应急报警事件的先重构后建模预测法的探索研究

This research proved that 110-alarm events have predictability; the applicability of forecast models that could be applied to government emergency management departments and applied for forecasting of public security organ in actual command and supports assistant-decision. This innovative method used high-order AR to synthesize time series of 110-alarm forecasting result to the original signal forecasting result and to be proved through experiments. This innovative modeling and forecasting process is called forecasting method of reconstructed first before modeling.