ANALYSIS OF WATER RESOURCES BASED ON SD MODEL IN YANQI COUNTY
基于系统动力学的新疆焉耆县水资源需求分析

Water resource is an important factor for the socio-economic development.In the North Western China,the climate is very dry,the water resource is lack,and the eco-environment is weak,while the growth rate of population is high and the eco-society is undeveloped.The demand of water resources increases with the development of society and economy have resulted in more and more serious contradiction between ecology and economy.Limited water resources have became the obstacle for the sustainable development of socio-economic and the stabilization of weak eco-environment in the North Western China.So,how to protect,exploit and utilize water resources becomes a hot topic in home and abroad.Yanqi County is located in the extremely drought region of the Yauqi Basin,which is located in the south of the middle Tianshan Mountain of the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang.Owing to the unreasonable water resource use,the water use efficiency is very low,the groundwater depth becomes very low,the soil salinization becomes more and more serious,and the society,economy and ecological environment become worse and worse in Yanqi County.Therefore,achieving an effective water use style is urgent for reasonable water use in Yanqi County and the entire arid and semiarid land.System Dynamics(SD)helps achieving a reasonable utilization style of water resources.In this paper,based on the statistics of eco-society,water resources and eco-environment from the yearbook of Xinjiang in 2000～2007 and Bureau of Water Resources of Bazhou,a simple SD model about the usage of water resources was established,and the tends of water quantity of agricultural,industrial,domestic,livestock and ecological water demands were simulate and analyzed in the next twenty years in Yanqi County.The results show that the proportion of agricultural water demand is very high,up to 90%,and its variation determines the change of the total water demand,and immensely affects the water demand and supply.Although the other water demands would increase rapidly in the next twenty years,they could not obviously affect the demand and supply of water resource because of their low proportion.From the poing of view of water supply,the feed-water pressure would be obviously alleviated by improving the exploitable proportion of surface water and groundwater.The objective of this study is to provide a scientific basis for reasonable water use and to provide a new approach to understand water demand and supply in future in the arid area.