A GIS-SD-based Spatio-temporal Modelling and Regulating Policies on Water Pollution in Dalian Gulf
基于GIS—SD的大连湾水污染时空模拟与调控策略研究

The contradictions for sustainable development of Dalian gulf are dynamic. These contradictions involve spatial factors (e.g. the concentration distribution of pollutants and environmental function division, etc.). In order to deal with and simulate contradictory mechanisms of various developing plans (various economic increase plans and urbanization plans) of the area along Dalian gulf, this paper puts forward a new conceptual GIS_SD frame in order to simulate the water pollution_controlling system of Dalian gulf. The model of the system is built. The water pollution of Dalian gulf is modeled temporally and spatially, and regulating strategies are worked out. This paper simulates the impacts on environmental quality of Dalian gulf by various development plans of the area. The combination of SD (Dynamic Modelling) and GIS (Spatial Modelling) are mutually complementary. This may describe, analyze and stimulate a complex system (e.g. complex structure, timely dynamics, and spatial factors, etc.), and contribute to solve complex system problems. This helps decision_maker consider dynamic contradictions of environment and development in two dimensions.