Credit Risk Decision Model under the Effects of the Default Probability
存在拖欠还款概率影响的信贷风险决策机制

The paper discusses that the existence of the default probability has influence on the expected return for a bank and that the size of the successful probability of a project has influence on the expected return of an entrepreneur.It states the important action of both collateral and rationing in the course of defending credit risk especially moral risk.In the case of considering the influence of the default probability,the paper establishes a credit risk decision model and gives corresponding credit risk decision mechanism.Under the action of the mechanism,the paper analyzes the conditions of loan application about both credit rationing and non-rationing respectively.We get an important conclusion that the entrepreneur only applies for the loan with collateral under the influence of the default probability.In addition,the paper further discusses the problems of incentive compatibility between bank and loan entrepreneurs with asymmetric information.By designing the positive incentive and the negative incentive,it exposes the internal relationship between the default probability and the successful probability of the project.