Foundation of Tourism Background-Trend-Line of 6 Major Tourism-Source-Markets of China
我国6大境外客源市场旅游本底趋势线的建立

The concept of tourism background trend line was put forward in this paper. Based on the statistics data of foreign tourists from 1984a to 1996a, 6 background trend lines were founded by optimization simulated method, which deal with Japan, America, Britain, Germany, Australia and France. As applications, the author forecasts the next 4 years' development trends of above 6 markets with the forecasting function of tourism background trend line.