Apply Gray Markov SCGM(1,1 )C Model to Predict Air Disaster Death Toll
基于灰色马尔可夫SCGM(1 ,1) C 模型的空难人数预测

The prediction of air disaster is the basis of aviation safety assessment and decision-making.Gray prediction is suitable for such kinds of system objects with few data,short time and little fluctuation,and Markov chain theory is just suitable for forecasting stochastic fluctuating dynamic process.By combining the advantages of both gray prediction and Markov chain theory,a new gray Markov SCGM(1,1)_C model is proposed.The single gene system cloud gray SCGM(1,1)_C model is applied to imitate the development tendency of the forecast system while Markov prediction is used to forecast the fluctuation along the tendency.Finally,the new model is applied to predict the air disaster death toll of the world from 1979 to 2003.The results show that the new model not only discovers the trend of the air disaster death toll but also overcomes the random fluctuation of data affecting precision.