%0 Journal Article
%T Modelo n£¿o-linear de longo prazo para a pot¨ºncia requerida do sistema brasileiro de eletricidade
%A Sellitto
%A Miguel Afonso
%A Ribeiro
%A Jos¨¦ Luis Duarte
%A Petrillo
%A Fabiano
%J Investiga£¿£¿o Operacional
%D 2007
%I Scientific Electronic Library Online
%X the formerly closed brazilian electrical energy market has been disclosed for investors and domestic consumers, which now have choices for theirs decisions concerning energy sales and purchasing, in long-term contracts. to establish minimal planning condition, suppliers need to forecast the required load in order to project and operate power plants. with the aid of a method that integrates non-linear regression and soft-system methodology, we depict a non-linear model for the gross total electric power requirement, counting on domestic activity, population and human developing index. a goodness-of-fit better then 96% was achieved. the final analysis focused on the strong contingency period occurred in brazil in 2001.
%K electrical power
%K multiple nonlinear regression
%K multivariate data analysis
%K ssm
%K long-term load forecasting.
%U http://www.scielo.gpeari.mctes.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&pid=S0874-51612007000100001&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en