%0 Journal Article
%T 气象灾害影响商业银行风险理论机制与实证检验——基于2014~2023年我国商业银行的经验证据
Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Test of Meteorological Disasters’ Impact on Commercial Bank Risks—Based on Empirical Evidence from China’s Commercial Banks from 2014 to 2023
%A 张欣瑶
%A 顾欣然
%A 程柯
%J Sustainable Development
%P 234-247
%@ 2160-7559
%D 2025
%I Hans Publishing
%R 10.12677/sd.2025.154108
%X 文章选取2014~2023年中国466家商业银行机构作为样本数据，利用熵权法，综合多个经济和非经济维度构建衡量气象灾害损失的指标，实证检验了气象灾害对商业银行风险水平的影响机制与传导路径。研究结果表明：气象灾害损失指标与银行机构的违约率呈显著正相关关系。影响机制检验结果显示：气象灾害通过降低家庭财富、提高其资产风险的“个人”渠道来传导金融风险；气象灾害提高商业银行风险水平部分通过影响公司经营提高其总体违约风险的“企业”渠道达成。
Based on the sample data of 466 commercial banks in China from 2014 to 2023, this paper uses the entropy weight method to integrate multiple economic and non-economic dimensions to build indicators to measure the loss of meteorological disasters and empirically tests the impact mechanism and transmission path of meteorological disasters on the risk level of commercial banks. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the meteorological disaster loss index and the default rate of banking institutions. The test results of the impact mechanism show that meteorological disasters transmit financial risk through the “personal” channel of reducing family wealth and improving asset risk; Meteorological disasters can improve the risk level of commercial banks partly through the “enterprise” channel that affects the company’s operation and improves its overall default risk.
%K 气象灾害，
%K 商业银行风险，
%K 银行违约率
Meteorological Disaster
%K Commercial Bank Risk
%K Bank Default Rate
%U http://www.hanspub.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=113095