%0 Journal Article
%T 海原断裂带中强地震前<i>b</i>值时空异常特征研究<br>Spatial and Temporal Anomaly Characteristics of <i>b</i>-Value before Moderate Earthquake in Haiyuan Fault Zone
%A 罗恒之
%J Advances in Geosciences
%P 56-62
%@ 2163-3975
%D 2025
%I Hans Publishing
%R 10.12677/ag.2025.151007
%X 海原断裂带是青藏块体东北缘一条重要的断裂带&#65292;历史上强震丰富&#65292;现今小震活跃&#65292;目前仍存在发生中强以上地震的危险性&#65292;也是诸多地震学者重点关注的区域之一。本文基于小震<i>b</i>值在地震预测研究中的重要作用&#65292;系统研究了1970年以来海原&#8211;六盘山断裂带及附近区域小震<i>b</i>值时空变化特征&#65292;重点回溯了宁夏南部5次<i>M</i><sub>S</sub> 4.9以上地震前的<i>b</i>值异常变化特征&#65292;并分析发现宁夏南部小震<i>b</i>值在2023年12月31日平川4.9级地震后处于低值波动变化&#65292;表明目前海原&#8211;六盘山断裂带处于应力积累状态&#65292;该结果为宁夏地区震情短临跟踪提供参考依据。<br>Haiyuan fault zone is an important fault zone in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Tibet Block. It is rich in strong earthquakes in history, but active in small earthquakes today. At present, there is still a risk of moderate and strong earthquakes. Based on the important role of <i>b</i>-values of small earthquakes in earthquake prediction, this paper systematically studies the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of <i>b</i>-value of small earthquakes since 1970 in the Haiyuan-Liupanshan fault zone, and focuses on the <i>b</i>-value anomaly changes before five earthquakes with magnitude &#8805; <i>M</i><sub>S</sub> 4.9 in southern Ningxia, and finds that the <i>b</i>-value of small earthquakes in southern Ningxia is at a low value fluctuation after Pingchuan <i>M</i><sub>S</sub> 4.9 earthquake on December 31, 2023. The results show that the Haiyuan-Liupanshan fault zone is in the state of stress accumulation, which provides a reference for the earthquake short-term tracking in Ningxia region.
%K <i>b</i>值&#65292
%K 海原断裂带&#65292
%K 平川4.9级地震<br><i>b</i>-Value
%K Haiyuan Fault Zone
%K Pingchuan <i>M</i><sub>S</sub> 4.9 Earthquake
%U http://www.hanspub.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=105347