%0 Journal Article
%T 基于ARIMA模型的江门市GDP分析与预测<br>GDP Analysis and Prediction of Jiangmen City Based on ARIMA Model
%A 郑宗韬
%A 龚平
%J Advances in Applied Mathematics
%P 2240-2255
%@ 2324-8009
%D 2024
%I Hans Publishing
%R 10.12677/aam.2024.135213
%X 国内生产总值(GDP)是国民经济核算的核心指标，GDP预测的准确与否直接关系到就业、收入分配等许多国计民生的重大问题。运用SAS模型对江门市近三年国内生产总值进行了统计分析，对江门市今后三年国内生产总值进行了预测。将该方法的预报值与实测值进行了对比，结果表明该方法具有良好的预测效果。该结论不仅为GDP的预测提供了可靠信息，也可以在一定程度上作为政府决策的依据和参考。<br />
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the core indicator of national economic accounting, and the accuracy of GDP prediction is directly related to many major issues of the national economy and people’s livelihood, such as employment and income distribution. This article uses SAS statistical software to apply the ARIMA model to analyze the GDP data of Jiangmen City over the years in order to predict the GDP values of Jiangmen City in the next three years. By comparing the predicted data of the model with the actual data, it is proven that the model has high prediction accuracy. This conclusion not only provides reliable information for predicting GDP but also serves as a basis and reference for government decision-making to a certain extent.
%K GDP，ARIMA模型，时间序列分析<br>Gross Domestic Product
%K ARIMA Model
%K Time Series Analysis
%U http://www.hanspub.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=88137