%0 Journal Article
%T 基于饱和发生率的游客人数模型的动力学分析<br>Dynamic Analysis of Tourist Number Model Based on Saturation Incidence Rate
%A 刘娇
%A 金银芳
%A 金银来
%J Advances in Applied Mathematics
%P 1477-1485
%@ 2324-8009
%D 2024
%I Hans Publishing
%R 10.12677/aam.2024.134138
%X 本文将具有饱和发生率的传染病动力学SIRS模型应用于旅游业研究，获得了游客人数动力学模型。通过对该模型系统的动力学性质分析，获得了平衡点类型及全局渐近稳定的条件，分析了游客人数变化的趋势。进一步通过模拟在不同因素影响下的游客人数变化趋势发现，提高旅游吸引力、降低游客拥挤系数、延长旅游时长、提高可能再次旅游的概率皆可增加游客人数，并据此为旅游业的健康和可持续发展提供了建议。<br />
This article applied the SIRS model of infectious disease dynamics with saturation incidence rate to tourism industry research and obtained a dynamic model of tourist numbers. By analyzing the dynamic properties of the model system, the types of equilibrium points and the conditions for global asymptotic stability were obtained, and the trend of changes in tourist numbers was analyzed. Further simulation of the trend of tourist numbers under different factors revealed that increasing tourism attractiveness, reducing tourist congestion, extending tourism duration, and increasing the probability of re-tourism can all increase the number of tourists. Based on this, suggestions are provided for the healthy and sustainable development of the tourism industry.
%K 饱和发生率，SIRS模型，平衡点，全局渐近稳定性<br>Saturation Occurrence Rate
%K SIRS<i> </i>Model
%K Equilibrium Point
%K Global Asymptotic Stability
%U http://www.hanspub.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=85299