%0 Journal Article
%T 基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的全国农民工数量预测研究<br>Prediction of the Number of Migrant Workers in China Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model
%A 周博
%J Operations Research and Fuzziology
%P 3117-3123
%@ 2163-1530
%D 2023
%I Hans Publishing
%R 10.12677/ORF.2023.134313
%X 本文旨在利用灰色GM(1,1)模型对全国农民工数量进行预测。首先，文章介绍了农民工问题的背景和重要性，指出了预测其数量对政府和社会发展的重要性。然后，解释了数据的来源与收集，本研究所使用数据来源于国家统计局的《农民工监测调查报告》。紧接着，详细阐述了灰色GM(1,1)模型的原理和应用。该模型是一种基于灰色理论的预测方法，通过对样本数据的灰色微分和累加得出未来趋势。文章将农民工数量分为外出农民工数量、本地农民工数量和数量总和，并将其应用于灰色GM(1,1)模型进行预测。预测结果显示，未来五年外出、本地和农民工总和的预计数量分别为18035.01、13613.44和31577.73万人，其中农民工数量总和将在五年之内多出1500万人，这对于政府的反应能力和调控水平将是一个极大的考验。最后，本文对预测结果进行了分析和讨论，提出了可能影响农民工数量的因素，并对未来的发展趋势进行了展望。本研究的结果对于农民工政策的制定和社会管理具有重要意义，为相关部门提供了参考和决策依据。<br />
This paper aims to use the grey GM(1,1) model to forecast the number of migrant workers in China. First of all, the paper introduces the background and importance of the problem of migrant workers, and points out the importance of predicting their numbers for government and social development. Then, the source and collection of data are explained. The data used in this research comes from the “Migrant Workers Monitoring Survey Report” of the National Bureau of Statistics. Then, the principle and application of grey GM(1,1) model are described in detail. The model is a prediction method based on grey theory, which obtains the future trend by grey differentiation and accumulation of sample data. This paper divides the number of migrant workers into the number of migrant workers, the number of local migrant workers and the total number of migrant workers, and applies them to the grey GM(1,1) model to forecast. The forecast results show that in the next five years, the total number of migrant workers is expected to be 18,03501, 13,613.44 and 315,7773 million, of which the total number of migrant workers will be more than 15 million in five years, which will be a great test for the government’s response ability and regulation level. Finally, this paper analyzes and discusses the forecast results, puts forward the factors that may affect the number of migrant workers, and looks forward to the future development trend. The results of this study are of great significance to the policy formulation and social management of migrant workers, and provide reference and decision-making basis for relevant departments.
%K 灰色GM(1
%K 1)模型，灰色理论，农民工数量预测，发展趋势<br>Grey GM(1
%K 1) Model
%K Grey Theory
%K Migrant Worker Quantity Prediction
%K Development Trends
%U http://www.hanspub.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=70283