%0 Journal Article
%T Meteorological Drought Detection and Forecast Using Standardized Precipitation Index and Univariate Distribution Models: Case Study of Bamako, Mali
%A Alikalifa Sanogo
%A Prince Appiah Owusu
%A Roland Songotu Kabange
%A Bakary Issa Djire
%A Racheal Fosu Donkoh
%A Nasser Dia
%J Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection
%P 30-55
%@ 2327-4344
%D 2023
%I Scientific Research Publishing
%R 10.4236/gep.2023.117003
%X <span style=\"font-size:14px;\">As an extended period of unusually dry weather conditions without
sufficient rain, drought poses enormous risk on societies. Characterized by the
absence </span><span style=\"font-size:14px;\">of precipitation for long periods of
time, often resulting in water scarcity,</span> <span style=\"font-size:14px;\">droughts are increasingly posing significant environmental challenges.</span><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"> Drought is therefore considered an important element in the management of water </span><span style=\"font-size:14px;\">resources, especially groundwater resources
during drought. This study </span><span style=\"font-size:14px;\">therefore sought to investigate the rainfall
variability and the frequency of drought for the period 1991 to 2020 in Bamako
based on monthly rainfall data from Bamako-Senou gauge station. The
standardized precipitation index (SPI) for 12-month, 6-month and 3-month
timescales and the SPI for annual totals were used to characterized drought in
the study area (Bamako). Univariate pa</span><span style=\"font-size:14px;\">rametric
probability distributions such as Normal, Log-normal, Gumb</span><span style=\"font-size:14px;\">el type I and
Pearson type III (P3) distributions were fitted with drought varia</span><span style=\"font-size:14px;\">bles (severity and duration) for future planning
and manag</span><span style=\"font-size:14px;\">ement. Non-parametric test such as Mann-Kendall trend test was
also used to detect trend in annual rainfall data. The results showed that
based on 12-month SPI, Ba</span><span style=\"font-size:14px;\">mako experienced
two (02) extreme droughts one in July 2002 (SPI =</span><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"> -2.2165) and another
in June 2015 (SPI = -2.0598</span><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt;font-family:\" minion=\"\" pro=\"\" capt\",\"serif\";\"=\"\"><span></span><span style=\"font-size:14px;\"> QUOTE </span></span><span></span><span style=\"font-size: 14px;\" cambria=\"\" math\",\"serif\";\"=\"\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\">SPI=-2.0598</span></span><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt;font-family:\" times=\"\" new=\"\" roman\",\"serif\";\"=\"\"></span><span><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt;font-family:\" minion=\"\" pro=\"\" capt\",\"serif\";\"=\"\"><span> </span></span></span><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt;font-family:\" minion=\"\" pro=\"\" capt\",\"serif\";\"=\"\"><span></span></span><span style=\"font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;\" \"=\"\"><span style=\"font-size:14px;\">). Drought
years represented 46.67% for the overall periods according to the SPI
%K Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
%K Rainfall Variability
%K Univariate Proba-bility Distribution
%K Drought
%K Bamako
%U http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=126229