%0 Journal Article
%T 西安市近62年冬季冷暖时空变化特征分析<br>Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Cold and Warm in Recent 62 Winter in Xi’an
%A 金丽娜
%A 徐波
%A 张高健
%J Climate Change Research Letters
%P 449-456
%@ 2168-5703
%D 2023
%I Hans Publishing
%R 10.12677/CCRL.2023.122047
%X <span style=\"font-size:14px;\">应用1960年12月~2022年2月西安市6个国家气象站和1个区域气象站的气温、降水数据，对县区冬季平均气温求气候标准差，并确定冷暖冬阈值，判定西安市区域冷暖冬及各区县单站冷暖冬。采用距平、线性、相关性等方法，分析西安市冬季平均气温及冷暖冬气候特征。结论显示：西安市近62年冬季气温变化趋势与全国研究结果一致，冬季平均气温距平以0.35℃/10a的趋势上升，且为明显的阶段性变化，2015年至今为暖期，强冷冬主要发生在20世纪60~70年代，强暖冬主要发生在21世纪；周至县、市区冷冬发生频次较高，蓝田县、高陵区暖冬发生频次较高；西安市冬季气温变化一致型占比30.6%，前后相反型占比59.7%，冷暖交替型占比9.7%；冬季平均气温与气温要素均呈正相关，与降水要素多成负相关；年、春季、秋季、汛期平均气温对冬季气温具有明显的指示性意义；21世纪以来，各区县冷暖冬时间重合度较高，说明区域尺度上的冷暖冬事件的出现是大范围气候状态的反应。</span><br />
<span style=\"font-size:14px;\">Based on the temperature and precipitation data of six national meteorological stations and one re-gional meteorological station in Xi’an from December 1960 to February 2022, the climate standard deviation of the average winter temperature in the county is calculated, and it determines the cold and warm winter threshold, determines the regional cold and warm winter of Xi’an and the cold and warm winter of single station in each district and county. The methods of deviation, linearity and correlation are adopted, which analyzes the climatic characteristics of extremely cold and warm winter in Xi’an. The conclusion shows that: the variation trend of winter temperature in Xi’an in recent 62 years is consistent with the national research results, the average temperature in winter is 0.35？C/10a, and it is an obvious stage change, warm period since 2015, the strong cold winter mainly occurred in the 1960s and 1970s, and strong warm winter mainly occurred in the 21st century; the frequency of cold winter in Zhouzhi and urban are high, the frequency of warm winter in Lantian and Lintong are high; in Xi’an, 30.6% of the winter temperature changes are consistent, 59.7% are opposite, and 9.7% are cold and warm alternating; the average temperature in winter is positively correlated with the temperature elements and negatively correlated with the precipitation elements; the average temperature in the year, spring, autumn and flood season has obvious indicative significance to the winter temperature; since the 21st century, the coincidence degree of cold and warm winter in each district and county is high, it shows that the occurrence of cold and warm winter events on the regional scale is the response of a wide range of climate conditions.</span>
%K 冬季，冷暖冬，时空变化特征，预测模型<br>Winter
%K Cold and Warm Winter
%K Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics
%K Prediction Model
%U http://www.hanspub.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=63453