%0 Journal Article
%T Statistical Model for the Forecast of Electricity Power Generation in Ghana
%A Eric Neebo Wiah
%A Albert Buabeng
%A Kofi Agyarko
%J Open Journal of Statistics
%P 373-384
%@ 2161-7198
%D 2022
%I Scientific Research Publishing
%R 10.4236/ojs.2022.123024
%X Adequate power supply is a vital factor in the development of the
economic growth of every nation. However, due to changing hydrological
conditions, inadequate fuel supplies and dilapidated infrastructure, developing
countries face challenges in planning the power grid infrastructure needed to
support rapidly growing urban populations. This research seeks to model the
monthly </span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">electricity power generation for
prediction purposes, by implementing stoch</span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">astic process models on a
historical series of monthly electricity power </span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">generation in Ghana. A detailed explanation of model selection and
forecasting accuracy is presented. The SARIMA (1,</span></span></span><span><span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;\"> </span></span></span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">0,</span></span></span><span><span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;\"> </span></span></span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">0)</span></span></span><span><span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;\"> </span></span></span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">กม</span></span></span><span><span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;\"> </span></span></span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">(0,</span></span></span><span><span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;\"> </span></span></span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">1,</span></span></span><span><span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;\"> </span></span></span><span><span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">1)</span><sub><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">12</span></sub><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"> model with an</span></span></span></span><span><span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"> AIC
score of 439.6995, a BIC score of 446.3537 and an AICc score of 440.8759, has
been identified as an appropriate model for predicting monthly electricity
power generation in Ghana. The range used was from 2015 to 2019 and it was
validated with data from April to December of 2019. The predicted values for
2019 are relatively close to the observed values. Thus, the experimental
results </span><span
%K Electricity
%K Seasonality
%K Power
%K SARIMA
%K Forecast
%U http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=118001