%0 Journal Article
%T 基于GM(1,1)灰色系统模型的山东省卫生总费用分析与预测研究<br>Analysis and Prediction Studies of Total Health Cost in Shandong Province Based on the GM(1,1) Grey System Model
%A 叶金萍
%J Advances in Applied Mathematics
%P 2460-2467
%@ 2324-8009
%D 2022
%I Hans Publishing
%R 10.12677/AAM.2022.115259
%X 目的：对2020~2029年十年间的山东卫生总费用进行预测分析研究。方法：通过应用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型，利用Excel 2019对山东省卫生总费用支出进行数据分析讨论。结论：灰色GM(1,1)模型预测结果表明，至2029年山东省的卫生总费用仍然呈上升趋势，但是受经济发展新常态和资源的有限性等原因的影响，卫生总费用本身不可能无限增长而且最终会达到一个阈值和平台期。<br />
Objective: To analyze the total health cost in Shandong for ten years from 2020 to 2029. Methods: By applying GM(1,1) grey prediction model and excel 2019 to analyze total health expenditure in Shandong Province. Conclusion: The prediction results of grey GM(1,1) model show that the total health cost in Shandong province is still on an upward trend by 2029, but due to the new normal of economic development and limited resources, the total health cost itself cannot increase indefinite-ly and will eventually reach a threshold and platform period.
%K 卫生总费用，灰色模型，预测，卫生支出<br>Total Health Cost
%K Gray Model
%K Prediction
%K Health Expenditure
%U http://www.hanspub.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=51295