%0 Journal Article
%T FORECASTING OF TURKEY¡¯S ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION WITH GREY PREDICTION METHOD
%A Utkucan £¿ahin
%J -
%D 2018
%X The aim of this study is forecasting of Turkey¡¯s electricity generation and consumption for the period 2017-2027. To achieve this, Turkey¡¯s electricity generation and consumption for the period 1996-2016 was modelled using Grey prediction method GM(1,1). Results showed that the small error probability (p) and posterior error ratio (C) values of GM(1,1) model for Turkey¡¯s electricity generation were obtained as 0.12 and 0.97, respectively, and 0.11 and 0.97, respectively for Turkey¡¯s electricity consumption. So, the level of established GM(1,1) models for Turkey¡¯s electricity generation and Turkey¡¯s electricity consumption is in good level. Additionally, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of GM(1,1) models for Turkey¡¯s electricity generation and consumption were obtained as 3.12% and 3.08%, respectively. Results of F-test showed that p-value of GM(1,1) model for Turkey¡¯s electricity generation and consumption was 0.48. According to these results, GM(1,1) models are suitable for prediction of Turkey¡¯s electricity generation and consumption. Furthermore, the average annual grow rates of Turkey¡¯s electricity generation and consumption for the period 2017-2027 were forecasted as 5.25% and 5.58%, respectively. In addition to this, Turkey¡¯s electricity generation and consumption were forecasted as 405310GWh and 344672GWh, respectively, for 2023
%K Gri tahmin modeli
%K T¨¹rkiye
%K elektrik enerjisi ¨¹retimi
%K elektrik enerjisi t¨¹ketimi
%K tahminleme
%U http://dergipark.org.tr/muglajsci/issue/39930/450307