%0 Journal Article
%T Application of Emerging-State Actor Theory: Analysis of Intervention and Containment Policies £¿
%A Timothy Clancy
%J -
%D 2018
%R https://doi.org/10.3390/systems6020017
%X Abstract Our research builds upon a theory of emerging-state actors. We look to apply the theory in analyzing intervention and containment policies to use against emerging-state actors, using the Islamic State of Syria & Iraqi (ISIS) as the case study. We show utility across four military applications of simulation: understanding, forecasting and responding to adversary and societal behavior; understanding enemy command and control structures; and analyzing, forecasting and planning courses-of-action (COA). To do this, we created two baseline scenarios¡ªone replicating the historical foreign intervention against ISIS and a counter-factual where no foreign intervention occurred. We then conducted a suite of experiments on contemporary military intervention policies in isolation, combination, at different timing windows and under hypothetical ¡°best case¡± conditions as well as operationally constrained. Insights of these experiments¡¯ tests include the influence of ethnographic envelopes, timing windows, the importance of actor legitimacy and the marginally diminishing returns of combat actions. Finally, we test a policy based on emerging-state actor theory incorporating these insights against the contemporary policies, historical baseline and two falsification policies. The emerging-state actor COA performs significantly better than others. Our research contributes a simulation, called the Emerging-State Actor Model (E-SAM). This simulation includes military, economic, political, social and information aspects (known asDIME-PMESII simulations) for both researchers and military planners concerned with irregular conflict. View Full-Tex
%K The Islamic State
%K Islamic State of Syria & Iraq(ISIS)
%K ISIL
%K DAESH
%K insurgency
%K conflict
%K security
%K non-state actor
%K emerging-state actor
%K intervention
%K policy analysis
%K DIME-PMESII
%U https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/6/2/17