%0 Journal Article %T A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of CedrusˋdeodaraˋD. Don from the Hindu Kushˋrange of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations %A Ahmad %A Sarir %A Han %A Shijie %A Li %A Zongshan %A Ullah %A Sami %A Wang %A Xiaochun %A Yasmeen %A Sumaira %A Zhang %A Yuandong %A Zhu %A Liangjun %J - %D 2020 %R https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-783-2020 %X

Abstract. The rate of global warming has led to persistent drought. It is considered to be the preliminary factor affecting socioeconomic development under the background of the dynamic forecasting of the water supply and forest ecosystems in West Asia. However, long-term climate records in the semiarid Hindu Kushˋrange are seriously lacking. Therefore, we developed a new tree-ring width chronology of Cedrus deodara spanning the period of 1537每2017. We reconstructed the March每August Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the past 424ˋyears, going back toˋ1593 CE. Our reconstruction featured nine dry periods (1593每1598, 1602每1608, 1631每1645, 1647每1660, 1756每1765, 1785每1800, 1870每1878, 1917每1923, and 1981每1995) and eight wet periods (1663每1675, 1687每1708, 1771每1773, 1806每1814, 1844每1852, 1932每1935, 1965每1969, and 1990每1999). This reconstruction is consistent with other dendroclimatic reconstructions in West Asia, thereby confirming its reliability. The multi-taper method and wavelet analysis revealed drought variability at periodicities of 2.1每2.4, 3.3, 6.0, 16.8, and 34.0每38.0ˋyears. The drought patterns could be linked to the large-scale atmospheric每oceanic variability, such as the El Niˋo每Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and solar activity. In terms of current climate conditions, our findings have important implications for developing drought-resistant policies in communities on the fringes of the Hindu Kush mountain range in northern Pakistan.