%0 Journal Article
%T Better Practices in the Development and Validation of Recidivism Risk Assessments: The Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool¨C4
%A Grant Duwe
%J Criminal Justice Policy Review
%@ 1552-3586
%D 2019
%R 10.1177/0887403417718608
%X This study examines the development and validation of the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool¨C4 (MnSOST-4) on a dataset consisting of 5,745 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2012. Bootstrap resampling was used to select predictors, and k-fold and split-sample methods were used to internally validate the MnSOST-4. Using sex offense reconviction within 4 years of release from prison as the failure criterion, the data showed that 130 (2.3%) offenders in the overall sample were recidivists. Multiple classification methods and performance metrics were used to develop the MnSOST-4 and evaluate its predictive performance on the test set. The results from the regularized logistic regression algorithm showed that the MnSOST-4 performed well in predicting sexual recidivism in the test set, achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.835. Additional analyses on the test set revealed that the MnSOST-4 outperformed the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool¨C3 (MnSOST-3), Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool¨CRevised (MnSOST-R), and Static-99 in predicting sexual reoffending
%K risk assessment
%K sexual recidivism
%K sex offender
%K MnSOST-4
%U https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0887403417718608