%0 Journal Article
%T Judgmental adjustments in tourism forecasting practice: How good are they?
%A Vera Shanshan Lin
%J Tourism Economics
%@ 2044-0375
%D 2019
%R 10.1177/1354816618806727
%X This study aims to evaluate the accuracy of different judgmental forecasting tasks, compare the judgmental forecasting behaviour of tourism researchers and practitioners and explore the validity of experts¡¯ judgmental behaviour by using the Hong Kong visitor arrivals forecasts over the period 2011Q2£¿2015Q4. Delphi-based judgmental forecasting procedure was employed through the Hong Kong Tourism Demand Forecasting System, an online forecasting support system, to collect and combine experts¡¯ adjusted forecasts. This study evaluates forecasting performance and explores the characteristics of judgmental adjustment behaviour through the use of a group of error measures and statistical tests. The findings suggest a positive correlation between forecast accuracy and the level of data variability, and that experts¡¯ adjustments are more beneficial in terms of achieving higher accuracy for series with higher variability. Industry practitioners¡¯ forecasts outperformed academic researchers, particularly in making short-term forecasts. However, no significant difference was found between the two panels in making directionally correct forecasts. Experts¡¯ judgmental intervention was found most useful for those series most in need of adjustment. The size of adjustment was found to have a strong and significantly positive association with the direction of forecast adjustment, but no statistically significant evidence was found regarding the relationship between accuracy improvement and adjustment size
%K adjustment behaviour
%K econometric models
%K Hong Kong
%K judgmental forecasting
%K tourism demand
%U https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1354816618806727