%0 Journal Article
%T Absence of sustained breast cancer incidence inflation in a national mammography screening programme
%A Jessica Wharton
%A Kerry Sexton
%A Marli Gregory
%A Nisha Sharma
%A Richard Taylor
%A Stephen Morrell
%J Journal of Medical Screening
%@ 1475-5793
%D 2019
%R 10.1177/0969141318775766
%X To investigate the impact of population mammography screening on breast cancer incidence trends in New Zealand. Trends in age-specific rates of invasive breast cancer incidence (1994每2014) were assessed in relation to screening in women aged 50每64 from 1999 and 45每69 following the programme age extension in mid-2004. Breast cancer incidence increased significantly by 18% in women aged 50每64 compared with 1994每98 (p<0.0001), coinciding with the 1999 introduction of mammography screening, and remained elevated for four years, before declining to pre-screening levels. Increases over 1994每99 incidence occurred in the 45每49 (21%) and 65每69 (19%) age groups following the 2004 age extension (p<0.0001). Following establishment of screening (2006每10), elevated incidence in the screening target age groups was compensated for by lower incidence in the post-screening ˋ70 age groups than in 1994每98. Incidence in women aged ˋ45 was not significantly higher (+5%) after 2006 than in 1994每98. The cumulated risk of breast cancer in women aged 45每84 for 1994每98 was 10.7% compared with 10.8% in 2006每10. Increases in breast cancer incidence following introduction of mammography screening in women aged 50每64 did not persist. Incidence inflation also occurred after introduction of screening for age groups 45每49 and 65每69. The cumulated incidence for women aged 45每84 over 2006每10 after screening was well established, compared with 1994每98 prior to screening, shows no increase in diagnosis. Over-diagnosis is not inevitable in population mammography screening programmes
%K Breast cancer
%K service screening
%K mammography
%K incidence
%K New Zealand
%U https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0969141318775766