%0 Journal Article %T 气候变化和水库运行对径流影响的定量研究 %A 吴 迪 %A 周翔南 %A 张守平 %A 毕彦杰 %A 肖伟华 %A 赵 勇 %J 南水北调与水利科技 %D 2015 %X 气候变化; 人类活动; SWAT 模型; 区域气候模型RegCm3 ; 澜沧江 The basin w ater cy cle model SWAT and r egio na l climate mo del RegCm3 wer e coupled to dev elop the comprehensiv e simulatio n plat form o f basin w ater cycle, which was applied in the upper and middle r eaches of the Lancang2Meko ng Riv er. Compar ed w ith the nat ur al conditio ns, the effects of climate change ( temper atur e and precipitation) and reservo ir o perat ion o n the r unoff in the low er reach w ere investig ated quantitat ively. The r esults show ed that bo th climate change and reserv oir o per a2 tion can decrease the runoff in the low er reach o f the Lancang2Meko ng River in the next tw enty y ears, w ith the contributio n rat e of 88% from climate change w hile 12% fr om reserv oir operat ion. Climate chang e is the main reason to cause the decr easing of runo ff in the low er reach, w ith the contr ibution r ate o f 81% from temperatur e va riation w hile 19% from precipitation v ariation. Co nsequently , temperature is the most important facto r to affect the runoff in the low er r each of the Lancang2Mekong Riv er. The ef fects of reservo ir o per atio n on the r uno ff had significant var iatio ns w ithin a year, but insig nificant v ariat ions betw een dif2 fer ent y ears. 国家重点基础研究发展计划( 973 计划) ( 2010CB951100) ; / 十二五0 国家科技支撑计划基金资助项目( 2012BAC19B03) %K 气候变化 %K 人类活动 %K SWAT 模型 %K 区域气候模型RegCm3 %K 澜沧江 %K climate chang e %K human activ ity %K SWAT mo del %K r egional climate model RegCm3 %K Lancang2Mekong River %U http://www.nsbdqk.net/nsbdyslkj/article/abstract/20150107?st=article_issue