%0 Journal Article
%T 银行预期与中国经济周期波动<br>Banking Expectations and Business Cycle Fluctuations in China
%A 于 震
%A 丁尚宇
%J 西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）
%D 2019
%R 10.15896/j.xjtuskxb.201905006
%X 本文在寻求信贷周期理论支撑的基础上,运用多种静态和动态周期同步性方法,考察银行预期和经济周期在2004Q1―2017Q2期间的同步性关系及水平。研究发现:(1)银行预期的周期变动领先于经济周期,是经济周期波动的显著驱动因素;(2)银行预期形成具有前瞻性特征,其影响主要体现在对信贷资金的投向调控而不是规模调控上;(3)与信贷周期指标相比,银行预期对经济周期的驱动作用更强,在指标实用性和应用前景上具有明显的比较优势;(4)银行预期管理不仅是宏观调控预期管理的重点内容,同时作为从根源上熨平信贷周期的有效手段,也是宏观审慎监管的理想政策工具。<br>This paper reviews the existing literatures on credit cycle theories to find the theoretical evidences and supports. Based on these, the paper analyses the cycle synchronization between banking expectation and business cycle during 2004Q1―2017Q2 by using several representative synchronization measurement methods. The main conclusions are: 1)the cycle of banking expectations is ahead of business cycle in time, which means banking expectations drives business cycle; 2)the forward-looking feature of banking expectations influences credit mainly from the aspect of allocation of funds rather than scale; 3)compared with credit cycle, banking expectations are stronger driving force for business cycle fluctuations and more superior statistical indicators; 4)banking expectations should not only be regarded as a key target of macro expectation management, but also be regarded as a reasonable policy tool for macro-prudential regulation because of capability of curbing the credit cycles
%K micro control
%U http://skxb.xjtu.edu.cn/oa/DArticle.aspx?type=view&id=201905006