%0 Journal Article
%T A study on operating lifetime estimation for electrical components in power grids on the basis of analysis of maintenance records
%A Hironobu Shimasaki
%A Hirotaka Takano
%A Hisao Taoka
%A Ryuhei Shiomi
%J Journal of International Council on Electrical Engineering
%D 2019
%R https://doi.org/10.1080/22348972.2019.1612975
%X ABSTRACT This paper presents an estimation method of operating lifetime for electric power components, such as electric poles and pole transformers, utilizing massive records on their inspection and maintenance. The proposed method analyzes initial information, which is easily available, and real historical records of the inspection and measures for the inspection (maintenance) storing the database in an electric power company (e.g. 1.4 million and 53.4 thousand cases in the concrete electric poles). Subsequently, lifetime estimation models on each component are constructed using relationship between the initial conditions and the taking measures in the maintenance record. This method is aiming to apply on expansion planning phase of the power grid, and therefore the initial conditions are only used as its input in estimation process. Through numerical simulations, it was confirmed that accuracy of the lifetime estimation exceeds 70% (approximately 7 years). In addition, factors, which have an influence on the operating lifetime of the target component in process of lifetime estimation were clarified
%U https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22348972.2019.1612975