%0 Journal Article
%T Seasonality and trend prediction of scarlet fever incidence in mainland China from 2004 to 2018 using a hybrid SARIMA-NARX model
%A Chunjie Xu
%A Juxiang Yuan
%A Yongbin Wang
%A Zhende Wang
%J Archive of "PeerJ".
%D 2019
%R 10.7717/peerj.6165
%X Scarlet fever is recognized as being a major public health issue owing to its increase in notifications in mainland China, and an advanced response based on forecasting techniques is being adopted to tackle this. Here, we construct a new hybrid method incorporating seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) with a nonlinear autoregressive with external input(NARX) to analyze its seasonality and trend in order to efficiently prevent and control this re-emerging disease
%K SARIMA model
%K Scarlet fever
%K NAR model
%K Hybrid model
%K Forecasting
%K NARX model
%K Incidence cases
%K Seasonality
%K Trend
%K In mainland China
%U https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6339779/