%0 Journal Article
%T 江苏省昆山市1981-2014年胃癌死亡率趋势及率差分解分析
%A 仝岚
%A 史建国
%A 周杰
%A 张婷
%A 秦威
%A 罗晓明
%A 胡文斌
%A 邱和泉
%A 金亦徐
%J 肿瘤防治研究
%D 2016
%R 10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2016.05.018
%X 摘要 目的 探究江苏省昆山市1981—2014年胃癌死亡率变化趋势及定量估计影响因素。方法 历年胃癌死亡病例来源于全人群死因监测，计算分性别和年龄组粗死亡率与年龄标化率，使用年度变化百分比（annual percentage change, APC）及其95%CI评价死亡率在1981—2014年时间趋势。采用率差别分解法分析人口因素对胃癌死亡率变化的贡献。结果 胃癌年龄标化死亡率在男女合计（APC=-3.6%, 95%CI: -3.9%~-3.3%）、男性（APC=-3.9%, 95%CI: -4.3%~-3.5%）和女性（APC=-3.5%, 95%CI: -4.0%~-3.0%）人群中呈明显的下降趋势。昆山市1981—2014年间胃癌死亡率0~74岁累积率在男性和女性人群中大幅下降（APC=-4.2%, 95%CI: -4.7%~-3.7%）。胃癌死亡率的下降是人口因素与非人口因素作用结果，其中人口因素贡献在男女合计、男性及女性人群中分别为-124.92%、-154.61%和-117.52%。结论 江苏省昆山市过去30年高水平胃癌死亡率在非人口因素作用下持续下降，但这种下降受到了人口因素的阻碍
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%U http://www.zlfzyj.com/CN/abstract/abstract8756.shtml