%0 Journal Article
%T 中国能源消费总量的预测及影响因素分析<br>Prediction of Total Energy Consumption in China and Analysis of Its Influencing Factors
%A 李悦
%A 崔玉杰
%J Journal of Low Carbon Economy
%P 1-9
%@ 2324-7932
%D 2020
%I Hans Publishing
%R 10.12677/JLCE.2020.91001
%X <div style=\"text-align:justify;\">
	<span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">随着社会的发展，我们对能源的需求变得越来越大。截止到2018年，我国的能源消费总量达到464,000万吨标准煤。能源对于一个国家的经济发展非常重要。本文分别用多元线性回归模型和ARMA模型对能源消费总量进行预测。通过合理的方法来预测我国能源消费总量的未来发展趋势，对于我国能源部门制定有效合理的能源消费政策具有一定的现实意义。<br />
With the development of society, our demand for energy is growing. By 2018, China’s total energy consumption has reached 4640 million tons of standard coal. Energy is very important for a coun-try’s economic development. In this paper, multiple linear regression model and ARMA model are used to predict the total energy consumption. It is of practical significance for China’s energy sector to formulate effective and reasonable energy consumption policies to predict the future de-velopment trend of China’s total energy consumption through reasonable methods.</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\"></span> 
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%K 能源消费总量，多元线性回归，ARCH模型<br>Total Energy Consumption
%K Multiple Linear Regression
%K ARCH Model
%U http://www.hanspub.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=33398