%0 Journal Article
%T 农产品价格波动中的金融化因素分析——以大豆、食糖为例<br>The Analysis of Financialization Factors in Price Variation of Agricultural Commodity——Taking Soybean and Sugar for Example
%A 张有望
%A 李崇光
%J 华中农业大学学报(社会科学版)
%D 2018
%X 基于2007年1月至2016年12月的相关月度数据，以大豆和食糖为例，通过ARDL模型分别从长期和短期对影响国内农产品现货价格的金融化因素进行了系统测算。结果表明，通货膨胀因素、国内期货价格、货币供应量和国际现货价格是影响国内大豆现货价格的主要金融化因素；国内期货价格、通货膨胀因素和国际现货价格是影响国内食糖现货价格的主要金融化因素；汇率和能源价格对二者的影响均不明显。最后，从改善宏观经济环境、规范期货市场发展、健全农产品进口风险防控体系、关注品种间差异等方面提出了应对农产品金融化的对策建议。<br>Based on the monthly data of soybean and sugar from January 2007 to December 2016 and the application of ARDL model,this paper conducts a systematic calculation on the financialization factors affecting the spot prices of domestic agricultural commodities in the long term and the short term.The results show that among the four financialization factors,namely inflation,domestic futures prices,international spot prices and money supply,the first three impose great impacts on the spot price of domestic sugar while all the four influence the spot price of domestic soybean chiefly; the impacts of exchange rate and energy prices on both are negligible.Finally,countermeasures are proposed to tackle with the financialization of agricultural commodity,including improving the macroeconomic environment,standardizing the development of futures market,improving the risk prevention and control system of imported agricultural commodities,and concerning variety differences.
%K 农产品 大豆 食糖 价格波动 金融化 ARDL模型&lt
%K br&gt
%K agricultural commodity soybean sugar price fluctuation financialization ARDL model
%U http://hnxbl.cnjournals.net/hznydxsk/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20180510&flag=1