%0 Journal Article
%T 条锈病菌源基地小麦返青期条锈病发病程度预测<br>Prediction of Severity of Wheat Stripe Rust at Returning-green Stage in Wheat Pathogenic Base
%A 邹一萍
%A 马丽杰
%A 胡小平
%J 西北农业学报
%D 2016
%R 10.7606/j.issn.1004-1389.2016.02.022
%X 为有效预测小麦返青期条锈病发病程度，根据2011-2013年田间实测温度，对气象站温度数据进行校准，并对3 a间甘肃、青海2省10个监测点的秋苗病株率、日平均温度、田间小麦种植品种抗冻程度等数据进行分析，建立小麦返青期条锈病病株率的预测模型，发现日平均温度对小麦返青期条锈病发病程度影响最大，模型预测准确度达96%以上。<br>To effectively predict wheat stripe rust in returning-green stage,daily average temperature (December 1st to next March 10th from 2011 to 2013) from local meteorological station was adjusted based on measured temperature in the field.The predicting model for prediction of stripe rust in returning-green stage was conducted based on daily average temperature (December 1st to next March 10th) and the diseased plant rate in autumn and winter-hardiness of wheat in the 3 years.All data was recorded in 10 monitoring sites in Gansu and Qinghai provinces.The results of model analysis showed that the key factor affecting the occurrence of stripe rust in returning-green is daily average temperature，the accuracy rate of the model is over 96%.
%K 小麦条锈病 预测 小麦返青期 病株率&lt
%K br&gt
%K Wheat stripe rust Prediction Returning-green stage Diseased plant rate
%U http://xbnyxb.alljournals.cn/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20160222&flag=1