%0 Journal Article %T 软土路基沉降的联合法预测研究<br>Prediction Soft Soil Settling Using a Combination Method %A 崔凯 %A 杨文恒< %A br> %A CUI Kai %A YANG Wenheng %J 西南交通大学学报 %D 2017 %R 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2017.05.012 %X 为了探究一种能同时确保先行性与准确性的软土路基沉降预测方法，依托工程实际情况，结合工程地质勘查资料、工程实测以及路基沉降试验，对所选取的典型断面进行沉降预测分析，提出了一种联合优化型的软土路基沉降预测方法.首先，采用曲线拟合法中的3种不同曲线对软土路基沉降进行预测；其次，引入最小均方差法和最大关联度法判定最优曲线；最后，采用FLAC3D数值模拟法预测软土路基沉降，将最优拟合曲线法、FLAC3D数值模拟法、实测数据三者定量对比分析.研究结果表明：沉降发生前，通过使用实验室试验数据，FLAC3D数值模拟法预测值大于实际值15%~20%，偏于安全，可较早预测施工过程中的过大沉降；沉降发生时，通过使用工程实测数据，最优曲线拟合法可以更准确的预测路基沉降全过程，且最终沉降与实测值误差不超过3%；相对于预测加固处理后的路基沉降，联合法对预测扰动较小的软土路基沉降准确率更高，准确率提升幅度为5%~10%.<br>：To explore the antecedence and accuracy of predicting soft soil roadbed settlement this study analyzed selected typical sections taking into account field relationships, engineering geological surveys, engineering measurements, and roadbed settlement tests. A combined optimization method for predicting the settling of a soft soil subgrade was proposed. First, three kinds of curve fitting methods were applied. The optimal curve was determined using identification methods for two different evaluation criteria, the minimum mean square and maximum correlation methods. Then, the FLAC3D numerical simulation method was used to predict the settling of a soft soil roadbed. The optimal fitting curve method, FLAC3D numerical simulation method, and measured data were quantitatively analyzed and combined to predict the settlement process. Prior to settling, the laboratory test data were used in the FLAC3D numerical simulation method, and the modeled values were 15% to 20% greater than the observed values. This is considered safe, and the method can be used to predict excessive settlement in early construction processes. When settling occurred, the optimal curve fitting method predicted the roadbed settlement more accurately using the measured engineering data, and the error between the final settlement and measured did not exceed 3%. Compared with the roadbed settlement after reinforcement, the joint method was more accurate; furthermore, the accuracy rate was 5% to 10% higher for the soft soil subgrade with less disturbance %K 道路工程 %K 软土路基沉降 %K 联合法 %K 数值模拟 %K 曲线拟合 %K < %K br> %K road engineering %K soft soil subgrade settlement %K combination method %K numerical simulation %K curve fitting %U http://manu19.magtech.com.cn/Jweb_xnjd/CN/abstract/abstract12485.shtml