%0 Journal Article
%T 基于模糊贝叶斯网络的受电弓系统可靠性分析<br>Reliability analysis of multi pantograph system based on fuzzy Bayesian network
%A 李兴运
%A 
%A 齐金平
%A 
%A &lt
%A br&gt
%A LI Xingyun
%A 
%A QI Jinping
%A 
%J 铁道科学与工程学报
%D 2018
%X 针对在受电弓系统可靠性分析中的模糊故障树计算复杂，无法反向推理和不能很好地处理认知不确定性的问题，提出结合证据理论的模糊贝叶斯网络对多状态受电弓系统可靠性分析的方法。根据专家经验和历史数据构建T-S模糊故障树，然后依照相应的映射规则将T-S模糊故障树映射为模糊贝叶斯网络模型，并且构建各节点的条件概率表，同时结合证据理论分析方法对多态受电弓系统进行可靠性分析，根据各根节点的故障证据区间计算出中间节点和叶节点各故障状态的故障率模糊子集、根节点的概率重要度、关键重要度和后验概率，根据可靠性分析结果找出影响系统可靠性的薄弱环节，分析结果与动车组受电弓实际情况相符合，验证了算法的可行性和有效性。<br>Due to the computational complexity of the fuzzy fault tree in the reliability analysis for polymorphic pantograph system, it is impossible to negatively reason and accurately solve problems with cognitive uncertainty. On this basis, the present work integrated fuzzy Bayesian network with evidence theory to propose a method for reliability analysis of polymorphic pantograph system. First of all, the T-S fuzzy fault tree was constructed according to expert experience. Secondly, the T-S fuzzy fault tree was mapped to the fuzzy Bayesian network in accordance with the mapping rules, and the conditional probability table of each node was constructed. At the same time, the reliability on polymorphic pantograph system was examined according to analysis measures used in evidence theory. Thirdly, fault rate of fuzzy subsets, the importance of root nodes probability and critical degree as well as posterior probability of intermediate nodes and leaf nodes in each fault condition were calculated based on fault evidence interval of root nodes. Weak links influencing the reliability of pantograph system was also found according to reliability analysis results. The results of analysis in the article corresponded with the actual situation of pantograph of EMUs, thus the reliability and feasibility of algorithm was confirmed
%K 受电弓
%K 模糊贝叶斯网络
%K 可靠性分析
%K 证据理论&lt
%K br&gt
%K pantograph
%K fuzzy Bayesian networks
%K reliability
%K evidence theory
%U http://www.jrse.cn/paper/paperView.aspx?id=paper_318038