%0 Journal Article %T 气候变化情景下物种适宜生境预测研究进展<br>Advance in Predicting the Suitable Habitat of Species under Future Climate Change %A 雷军成 %A 徐海根 %A 吴军 %A 关庆伟 %A 丁晖 %A 崔鹏 %J 四川动物 %D 2015 %X 中文摘要：气候变化能够引起物种分布范围、生物物候等一系列生态现象和过程的变化,进而加速物种灭绝的速率。气候变化被认为是21世纪全球生物多样性面临的最主要威胁之一,将给未来的生物多样性保护工作带来严峻的挑战。利用物种分布模型预测气候变化情景下物种适宜生境的变化正成为当前的研究热点。本研究总结目前气候变化情景下物种适宜生境预测的最新方法及取得的主要成果。在研究方法上,多物种分布模型、多气候情景基础上的集合预测方法正成为目前研究采用的主要手段;在研究结果上,未来气候变化将有可能导致物种适宜生境面积减少,范围向高纬度、高海拔地区移动。最后本研究指出目前气候变化情景下物种适宜生境预测研究中存在的主要不足及今后的发展方向。<br>英文摘要：Climate change can bring a series of changes in ecological phenomena and processes, such as species distribution range and phenology. These changes were supposed to accelerate the extinction rate of species. As one of the major threats to biodiversity in the 21 th century, climate change posed a severe challenge to biodiversity conservation in the future. Current researches mainly focused to predict the variation of species distribution in the context of climate change using species distribution models (SDMs). In this review, the latest methods and conclusions in the studies of predicting the suitable habitat of species under the climate change were summarized. Currently, multi-climate scenarios and multi-SDMs based ensemble prediction techniques were the dominant methods. The future climate change were supposed to cause the decrease of suitable habitat area, and the shift of species from suitable habitats to high latitudes or altitudes. Finally, we pointed out the main deficiencies in current studies and the direction of study in the future. 2015,(): 794-800 收稿日期：2014-10-30 DOI：10.11984/j.issn.1000-7083.20140487 分类号：X176 基金项目：国家科技支撑计划(2012BAC01B01) 作者简介：雷军成(1984-),男,博士,主要从事生物多样性保护研究工作,E-mail:ljctnt@126.com *通讯作者：关庆伟,教授,博士生导师,E-mail:guanjapan999@163.com 参考文献： 雷军成, 徐海根. 2010. 基于MaxEnt的加拿大一枝黄花在中国潜在分布区预测[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 26(2):137-141. 颜忠诚, 陈永林. 1998. 动物的生境选择[J]. 生态学杂志, 17(2):43-49. 翟天庆, 李欣海. 2012. 用组合模型综合比较的方法分析气候变化对朱鹮潜在生境的影响[J]. 生态学报, 32(8):2361-2370. 张雷, 刘世荣, 孙鹏森, 等. 2011. 气候变化对物种分布影响模拟中的不确定性组分分割与制图——以油松为例[J]. 生态学报, 31(19):5749-5761. Aranda SC, Lobo JM. 2011. How well does presence-only-based species distribution modelling predict assemblage diversity? A case study of the Tenerife flora[J]. Ecography, 34(1):31-38. Araújo MB, Alagador D, Cabeza M, et al. 2011. Climate change threatens European conservation areas[J]. Ecology Letters, 14(5):484-492. Araújo MB, New M. 2007. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions[J]. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 22(1):42-47. Ashcroft MB, French KO, Chisholm LA. 2012. A simple post-hoc method to add spatial context to predictive species distribution models[J]. Ecological Modelling, 228:17-26. Barbet-Massin M, Rome Q, Muller F, et al. 2013. Climate change increases the risk of invasion by the %K 物种分布模型 %K 集合预测 %K 气候情景 %K 潜在分布 %K 生境< %K br> %K 英文关键字：species distribution model %K ensemble prediction %K climate scenario %K potential distribution %K habitat %U http://www.scdwzz.com/viewmulu.aspx?qi_id=1487&mid=46400&xuhao=27