%0 Journal Article
%T The Phase Dynamics of Earthquakes: Implications for Forecasting in Southern California
%A Kristy F. Tiampo
%A John B. Rundle
%A Seth McGinnis
%A Susanna Gross
%A William Klein
%J Physics
%D 2001
%I arXiv
%X We analyze the space-time patterns of earthquake occurrence in southern California using a new method that treats earthquakes as a phase dynamical system. The system state vector is used to obtain a probability measure for current and future earthquake occurrence. Thousands of statistical tests indicate the method has considerable forecast skill. We emphasize that the method is not a model, and there are no unconstrained or free parameters to be determined by fits to training data sets.
%U http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0102032v1