%0 Journal Article
%T 滨江流域降水周期及趋势分析
Analysis of Precipitation Cycles and Trend in the Binjiang River Basin
%A 丁华龙
%A 陈晓宏
%A 张云
%A 何昳颖
%J Journal of Water Resources Research
%P 382-388
%@ 2166-5982
%D 2013
%I Hans Publishing
%R 10.12677/JWRR.2013.26054
%X 降水的周期和趋势变异分析对区域水资源管理具有重要意义。以珠江流域北江一级支流滨江流域控制性水文站珠坑站1965~2011年逐日降雨资料为基础，采用Morlet小波分析和Mann-Kendall趋势检验法，分析了该流域年、汛期和非汛期降水量的周期、趋势变化和突变点。结果表明：年降水量存在24年、9年和5年左右的主周期，汛期降水量周期与年降水量周期基本相同，非汛期降水量存在12年和5年左右的主周期；年和汛期降水量呈显著性减少趋势，非汛期降水量呈微弱减少趋势；2011年年和汛期降水量处于偏丰期，非汛期降水量处于偏枯期，预计2015年左右年和汛期降水量将进入偏枯期，非汛期降水量将进入偏丰期；年和汛期降水量在1966年左右发生显著性突变，非汛期降水量在1979年发生显著性突变。
Analysis of precipitation cycles and trends variations is very important for regional water resource management. This paper is based on the daily precipitation data during 1965-2011 from Zhukeng controlling hydrologic station of Binjiang River Basin—the first tributary of the North River in the Pearl River Basin, and adapted from the Morlet wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall trend test to analyze the cycles as well as the trend variation and catastrophe point of the annual, flood season and non-flood season precipitations over the Bijiang River Basin. The results show that annual precipitation exists in about 24, 9 and 5 years primary cycles; flood season precipitation cycle is similar with annual precipitation cycle; non-flood season precipitation exists in 12 and 5 years main cycles. The annual and flood season precipitations show a significant decreasing trend, but non-flood season precipitation
%K 降水量；周期；Mann-Kendall；Morlet小波；趋势分析；滨江流域
Precipitation
%K Cycles
%K Mann Kendall
%K Morlet Wavelet
%K Trend Analysis
%K Binjiang River Basin
%U http://www.hanspub.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=12878