%0 Journal Article
%T A Deterministic Approach to Earthquake Prediction
%A Vittorio Sgrigna
%A Livio Conti
%J International Journal of Geophysics
%D 2012
%I Hindawi Publishing Corporation
%R 10.1155/2012/406278
%X The paper aims at giving suggestions for a deterministic approach to investigate possible earthquake prediction and warning. A fundamental contribution can come by observations and physical modeling of earthquake precursors aiming at seeing in perspective the phenomenon earthquake within the framework of a unified theory able to explain the causes of its genesis, and the dynamics, rheology, and microphysics of its preparation, occurrence, postseismic relaxation, and interseismic phases. Studies based on combined ground and space observations of earthquake precursors are essential to address the issue. Unfortunately, up to now, what is lacking is the demonstration of a causal relationship (with explained physical processes and looking for a correlation) between data gathered simultaneously and continuously by space observations and ground-based measurements. In doing this, modern and/or new methods and technologies have to be adopted to try to solve the problem. Coordinated space- and ground-based observations imply available test sites on the Earth surface to correlate ground data, collected by appropriate networks of instruments, with space ones detected on board of Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) satellites. Moreover, a new strong theoretical scientific effort is necessary to try to understand the physics of the earthquake. 1. Introduction In our opinion, the investigation of possible earthquake prediction must be carried out on a deterministic basis. Unfortunately, at the moment, the study of the physical conditions that give rise to an earthquake and the processes that precede a seismic rupture of an ordinary event are at a very preliminary stage and, consequently, the techniques of prediction of time of origin, epicentre, and magnitude of an impending earthquake now available are below standard. Therefore, the present level of knowledge is unable to achieve the objective of a deterministic prediction of an ordinary seismic event, but it certainly will in a more or less distant future tackle the problem with seriousness and avoiding scientifically incorrect, wasteful, and inconclusive shortcuts, as sometimes has been done. It will take long time (may be years, tens of years, or centuries) because this approach requires a great cultural, financial, and organizational effort on an international basis. It implies the need for carrying out combined ground and near-Earth space continuous observations of the so-called earthquake precursors, coseismic and postseismic phenomena, as well as the development of appropriate theoretical models able to justify the
%U http://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijge/2012/406278/