%0 Journal Article
%T ForestSim Model of Impacts of Smallholder Dynamics: Forested Landscapes of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
%A Audrey L. Mayer
%A Mark D. Rouleau
%J International Journal of Forestry Research
%D 2013
%I Hindawi Publishing Corporation
%R 10.1155/2013/520207
%X Many forested landscapes in the United States contain a large number of small private landowners (smallholders). The individual decisions of these smallholders can collectively have a large impact on the structure, composition, and connectivity of forests. While models have been developed to try to understand this large-scale collective impact, few models have incorporated extensive information from individual decision-making. Here we introduce an agent-based model, infused with sociological data from smallholders, overlaid on a GIS layer to represent individual smallholders, and used to simulate the impact of thousands of harvesting decisions. Our preliminary results suggest that certain smallholder characteristics (such as relative smallholder age and education level as well as whether a smallholder is resident or absentee) and information flow among owners can radically impact forests at the landscape scale. While still in its preliminary stages, this modeling approach is likely to demonstrate in detail the consequences of decision-making due to changing smallholder demographics or new policies and programs. This approach can help estimate the effectiveness of programs based on landscape-scale programmatic goals and the impact of new policy initiatives. 1. Introduction A critical dimension of sustainable natural resource management centers upon the relationship between human land use and land cover change [1]. Sustainability and sustainable resource management incorporate the impacts of activities on environmental, social, and economic conditions from the local to global scale, with the target of a level of use that can be maintained indefinitely without reducing the productivity of other areas or systems [2]. Sustainable forest management has chiefly been defined by organizations such as the FAO and standards systems such as the Forest Stewardship Council, although these certifications are often focused on environmental issues and few have indicators that identify or delineate landscape-scale sustainability [3, 4]. For the purposes of this paper, we will identify sustainable forest management at the landscape scale as actions that result in large patches of mature forest along with moderate levels of heterogeneity in forest patch size and stand age. Functioning ecosystems of significant size are better able to provide ecological goods and services and sustain the productivity of forestry and other resource-intensive industries at the landscape scale [5¨C8]. Land managers directly influence land use and land cover dynamics, and managers differ in
%U http://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijfr/2013/520207/