%0 Journal Article
%T Heavy Rainfall Simulation over Sinai Peninsula Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
%A Gamal El Afandi
%A Mostafa Morsy
%A Fathy El Hussieny
%J International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
%D 2013
%I Hindawi Publishing Corporation
%R 10.1155/2013/241050
%X Heavy rainfall is one of major severe weather over Sinai Peninsula and causes many flash floods over the region. The good forecasting of rainfall is very much necessary for providing early warning before the flash flood events to avoid or minimize disasters. In the present study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, heavy rainfall events that occurred over Sinai Peninsula and caused flash flood have been investigated. The flash flood that occurred on January 18, 2010, over different parts of Sinai Peninsula has been predicted and analyzed using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) Model. The predicted rainfall in four dimensions (space and time) has been calibrated with the measurements recorded at rain gauge stations. The results show that the WRF model was able to capture the heavy rainfall events over different regions of Sinai. It is also observed that WRF model was able to predict rainfall in a significant consistency with real measurements. In this study, several synoptic characteristics of the depressions that developed during the course of study have been investigated. Also, several dynamic characteristics during the evolution of the depressions were studied: relative vorticity, thermal advection, and geopotential height. 1. Introduction Heavy rainfall is one of the major severe weather in Egypt particularly in arid and semiarid regions especially if it is steep and mountainous regions such as Sinai Peninsula and the Eastern desert of Egypt. Short duration of heavy rainfall over a relatively small drainage area can lead to devastating flash flood, consequently causing a number of fatalities and tremendous damages. It can destabilize soils along mountain slopes, resulting in landslides and mudslides that cause severe damage to nearby villages. Heavy rainfall is usually resulting from individual mesoscale storms or mesoscale convective systems embedded in synoptic-scale disturbances [1]. High-resolution observations and numerical modeling technique are required to better predict heavy rainfall events, where the forecasting of heavy rainfall is very important for many decision makers who are sensitive to the occurrence of precipitation. An accurate quantitative precipitation forecast can identify the potential for heavy precipitation and possible associated flash flooding, as well as provide information for hydrological interests. Since heavy rainfall and flash flood can lead to severe damage and losses for both life and infrastructure, the need to warn people in advance is, thus, an important goal, but heavy
%U http://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijas/2013/241050/