%0 Journal Article
%T Characteristic Features of Precipitation Extremes over India in the Warming Scenarios
%A J. V. Revadekar
%A S. K. Patwardhan
%A K. Rupa Kumar
%J Advances in Meteorology
%D 2011
%I Hindawi Publishing Corporation
%R 10.1155/2011/138425
%X The detection of possible changes in extreme climate events, in terms of the frequency, intensity as well as duration assumes profound importance on the local, regional, and national scales, due to the associated critical socioeconomic consequences. Therefore, an attempt is made in this paper to evaluate various aspects of future projections of precipitation extremes over India, as projected by a state-of-art regional climate modeling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) towards the end of the 21st century (that is, 2071¨C2100) using standardized indices. Study reveals that PRECIS simulations under scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentration and sulphate aerosols indicate marked increase in precipitation towards the end of the 21st century and is expected to increase throughout the year. However the changes in daily precipitation and the precipitation extremes during summer monsoon (June through September) season are prominent than during the rest of year. PRECIS simulations under both A2 and B2 scenarios indicate increase in frequency of heavy precipitation events and also enhancement in their intensity towards the end of the 21st century. Both A2 and B2 scenarios show similar patterns of projected changes in the precipitation extremes towards the end of the 21st century. However, the magnitudes of changes in B2 scenario are on the lower side. 1. Introduction It is hardly necessary to state that water is one of the most important minerals and vital for all life. Precipitation is the meteorological variable of the most importance since it conditions the availability of water at the surface. It has played an important role in the past, and in the future also it will play a central role in the well-being and development of our society. This most precious resource is sometimes scarce, sometimes plentiful, and always unevenly distributed in space and time. Changes in the precipitation extreme events may require adaption and mitigation measures for proper water management. Recently, Alexander et al. [1] published the most up-to-date and comprehensive global picture of the observed trends in extremes in precipitation and found a general increase in the heavy precipitation indices. But the analysis suggests that compared to temperature changes, changes in precipitation extremes are less spatially coherent and at lower level of statistical significance. For the Indian region, their analysis shows the largest declining trends in the annual number of consecutive dry days. Earlier study over India [2] shows that most of
%U http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2011/138425/