%0 Journal Article
%T Are You HIV Invincible? A Probabilistic Study of Discordant Couples in the Context of HIV Transmission
%A Georgiy Bobashev
%A Jacob Norton
%A Wendee Wechsberg
%A Olga Toussova
%J PLOS ONE
%D 2014
%I Public Library of Science (PLoS)
%R 10.1371/journal.pone.0094799
%X A number of factors have been identified that are related to sexual and injecting HIV transmission. We developed a probabilistic mathematical model to put these factors together and interpret risks in the context of individual behavior among injecting drug-using (IDU) couples in St. Petersburg, Russia. Some HIV-discordant couples have unprotected sex and sometimes inject drugs together but stay discordant for a long time, while some individuals acquire HIV on the first encounter. We considered existing estimates of HIV transmission risks through injecting and sexual contacts to develop a predictive survival model for an individual who is exposed to HIV through intimate relationships. We computed simulated survival curves for a number of behavioral scenarios and discussed sources of simulated uncertainty. We then applied the model to a longitudinal study of HIV-discordant couples and validated the model¡¯s forecast. Although individual prediction of seroconversion time appeared impossible, the ability to rank behavioral patterns in terms of HIV risk and to estimate the probability of survival HIV-free will be important to educators and counselors.
%U http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0094799