%0 Journal Article
%T Monitoring Influenza Epidemics in China with Search Query from Baidu
%A Qingyu Yuan
%A Elaine O. Nsoesie
%A Benfu Lv
%A Geng Peng
%A Rumi Chunara
%A John S. Brownstein
%J PLOS ONE
%D 2013
%I Public Library of Science (PLoS)
%R 10.1371/journal.pone.0064323
%X Several approaches have been proposed for near real-time detection and prediction of the spread of influenza. These include search query data for influenza-related terms, which has been explored as a tool for augmenting traditional surveillance methods. In this paper, we present a method that uses Internet search query data from Baidu to model and monitor influenza activity in China. The objectives of the study are to present a comprehensive technique for: (i) keyword selection, (ii) keyword filtering, (iii) index composition and (iv) modeling and detection of influenza activity in China. Sequential time-series for the selected composite keyword index is significantly correlated with Chinese influenza case data. In addition, one-month ahead prediction of influenza cases for the first eight months of 2012 has a mean absolute percent error less than 11%. To our knowledge, this is the first study on the use of search query data from Baidu in conjunction with this approach for estimation of influenza activity in China.
%U http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0064323