%0 Journal Article
%T Population forecasting in Canada: conceptual and methodological developments
%A George
%A M.V.
%J Canadian Studies in Population
%D 2001
%I Canadian Population Society
%X English After introducing the value and interest in population forecasting, thethrust of the paper is on conceptual issues and methodological developments in population forecasting.It provides an historical overview of population projections by Statistics Canada and is presented forthe periods before and after the 1970s, covering a seventy-year history. The evolution of the currentregional cohort component projection model is articulated by describing the methodologicaldevelopments by components in each of the six sets of population projections from the 1970s to thebeginning of the new century. Also presented is a brief account of the main special/customizedprojections prepared. Finally, the paper provides a brief evaluation of the accuracy of selected pastprojections. French Apr¨¨s avoir soulign¨¦ l¡¯importance et l¡¯int¨¦r¨ºt que pr¨¦sentent les projections depopulation, l¡¯article consacre une attention particuli¨¨re ¨¤ l¡¯examen des conceptset des m¨¦thodes dans le d¨¦veloppement des perspectives d¨¦mographiques. Unerevue des projections d¨¦mographiques au Canada dans une perspectivehistorique avant et apr¨¨s 1970, couvrant une p¨¦riode de 70 ans, y est entreprise.L¡¯approche cohorte-composante, en vigueur au Canada dans les travaux desprojections depuis 1970 et jusqu¡¯¨¤ pr¨¦sent, est analys¨¦e dans le cadre dechacune de six s¨¦ries de projection, ¨¦labor¨¦es durant cette p¨¦riode de temps. Unbref compte-rendu est fourni du programme de projections sur demande.L¡¯article se termine par une ¨¦valuation de quelques projections s¨¦lectionn¨¦esquant ¨¤ leur pr¨¦cision.
%K projections
%K time span
%K forecasting
%K projection model
%K simulation
%K components
%K assumptions
%U http://www.canpopsoc.ca/CanPopSoc/assets/File/publications/journal/CSPv28n1p111.pdf