%0 Journal Article %T Spatio-temporal effects of human drivers on fire danger in Mediterranean Chile Efectos espacio-temporales de los factores humanos en el peligro de incendio en Chile mediterr芍neo %A Alejandra Carmona %A Mauro E Gonz芍lez %A Laura Nahuelhual %A Jorge Silva %J Bosque (Valdivia) %D 2012 %I Universidad Austral de Chile %X The aim of this study was to analyze how human factors, specifically land use and cover change (LUCC), influence wildfire danger in a mediterranean region of central Chile. Main drivers of LUCC were associated with changes in socio-economic conditions, which had strong effects on the structure of the landscape and on the danger of wildfires. Ignition and flammability were evaluated as key components of fire danger. Ignition probability was modeled for 1999 and 2009 using an autologistic regression, based on fire records from Corporaci車n Nacional Forestal (CONAF) and geographic, biophysical, and socioeconomic databases. Flammability was assessed by combining the National Vegetation Cadastre of 1999 and its update of 2009, and the fuel model developed by Julio (1995). Spatiotemporal analysis of flammability was performed and related with primary LUCC processes, namely, plantation expansion, forest regrowth, and agricultural abandonment. We combined the ignition probability and flammability analysis to produce wildfire danger maps. Results show that fire danger is a dynamic indicator that depends largely on human factors. By 1999, the area under high fire danger comprised 31,399 ha, whereas by 2009 this area had increased by 54,705 ha. For both periods, wildfire danger had a similar spatial distribution, concentrating near main roads, cities, and larger towns (26.3 % of the high fire danger area). Also high fire danger areas concentrated over zones covered by exotic forest plantations (33.2 %). These results provide a basis for a more effective design of fire control strategies. El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar la influencia de factores humanos, en espec赤fico del cambio de cobertura y uso de suelo (CCUS), en el peligro de incendios forestales en una regi車n mediterr芍nea de Chile. Para ello, se evalu車 la probabilidad de ignici車n y la inflamabilidad del paisaje como componentes clave del peligro de incendio. La probabilidad de ignici車n fue determinada a trav谷s de una de regresi車n autolog赤stica para los a os 1999 y 2009, utilizando como base los registros de la Corporaci車n Nacional Forestal y variables generadas a partir de bases de datos geogr芍ficas. La inflamabilidad se evalu車 mediante la combinaci車n de las categor赤as de vegetaci車n presentes en el Catastro y evaluaci車n de recursos vegetacionales de Chile de 1999 y su actualizaci車n de 2009, y el modelo de combustible desarrollado por Julio (1995). Se llev車 a cabo un an芍lisis espacio-temporal de inflamabilidad el que se relacion車 con los principales procesos CCUS (expansi車n de plantaciones, regeneraci車 %K peligro de incendio %K probabilidad de ignici車n %K inflamabilidad %K paisaje %K fire danger %K probabilities of ignition %K flammability %K landscape %U http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-92002012000300016