%0 Journal Article
%T A Predictive Spatial Model to Quantify the Risk of Air-Travel-Associated Dengue Importation into the United States and Europe
%A Lauren M. Gardner
%A David Fajardo
%A S. Travis Waller
%A Ophelia Wang
%A Sahotra Sarkar
%J Journal of Tropical Medicine
%D 2012
%I Hindawi Publishing Corporation
%R 10.1155/2012/103679
%X The number of travel-acquired dengue infections has been on a constant rise in the United States and Europe over the past decade. An increased volume of international passenger air traffic originating from regions with endemic dengue contributes to the increasing number of dengue cases. This paper reports results from a network-based regression model which uses international passenger travel volumes, travel distances, predictive species distribution models (for the vector species), and infection data to quantify the relative risk of importing travel-acquired dengue infections into the US and Europe from dengue-endemic regions. Given the necessary data, this model can be used to identify optimal locations (origin cities, destination airports, etc.) for dengue surveillance. The model can be extended to other geographical regions and vector-borne diseases, as well as other network-based processes. 1. Introduction Dengue is the most common mosquito-borne viral diseases in the world [1]. Although it is not currently endemic to either Europe or the continental United States, except along the Texas-M¨¦xico border and possibly Florida, an increase in dengue occurrence in many of the endemic regions worldwide, in conjunction with a significant rise in the volume of international air travel, has resulted in a greater likelihood of imported dengue infections among travelers returning to the United States and Europe from dengue-endemic regions [2]. It has also increased the potential for transport and establishment of the mosquito vector species in those regions of Europe and the U.S. in which suitable habitat is available. The causal agent for dengue is a virus that is transmitted from person to person through the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes (mainly Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus), with humans serving as the main viral host [1]. The geographic establishment of dengue is thought to be limited purely by the occurrence of its principal vector mosquito species, Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Both species have proven to be highly adaptable to human habitation and, as a result, the global spread of the vector has been difficult to contain [1]. Dengue is considered endemic to urban and suburban areas in parts of tropical and subtropical America, part of Australia, South and Southeast Asia, the Pacific, and eastern Africa. In addition, the number of imported cases of dengue in the U.S. and Europe is on the rise and further spread and establishment are anticipated [2, 3]. At present, there is no epidemiological surveillance on a national scale in Europe or at the
%U http://www.hindawi.com/journals/jtm/2012/103679/