%0 Journal Article
%T 内蒙古多伦地区降雨量预报模型研究<br>Precipitation Prediction Model in the Duolun Area, Inner Mongolia
%A 苏建伟
%A 沈冰
%A 贾宪
%J Journal of Water Resources Research
%P 505-507
%@ 2166-5982
%D 2012
%I Hans Publishing
%R 10.12677/JWRR.2012.16082
%X <span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">本文利用自回归滑动平均模型</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">(ARMA)</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">对多伦地区多年降雨量数据进行分析，进行时间序列模拟，建立了</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">ARMA</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">模型，验证了该模型在研究区的适用性，并用该模型对多伦地区未来</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">2~3</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">年的降雨量进行预测，并分析了该模型的利弊，为该区生产生活服务。<br />
<span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">We use the ARMA model to analyze rainfall data of Duolun, and use the established ARMA model to verify the applicability of the model and to predict the next 2 to 3 years rainfall in the Duolun region for the production and life.</span></span>
%K 年降雨量；时间序列；模拟；预报；ARMA模型<br>Annual Rain-Fall
%K Time Series
%K Imitation
%K Prediction
%K ARMA Modal
%U http://www.hanspub.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=7128